November 04, 2008
Into the Breech, Part I: Both Candidates Are Flawed

If you've read my most recent post, you know that I've been conflicted about getting into an in depth discussion about the current national elections happening today. Late last night, I worked on a private e-mail response to one of the commenters on my blog regarding my "checks and balances" missive. I sent it off, worried that it would not be well received, but I still felt I had to respond.

Well, this morning, I woke up with the realization that, as an extrovert and a writer, I'm only hurting myself by adding yet one more topic to the list of things I'm not discussing on my blog. I decided that it was both okay and, perhaps, an imperative to keep the conversation going. Then, when I checked my e-mail, I found a response from my friend that was exactly what I needed: an excellent continuation of the dialog. I'm going to ask her permission to post her response here (which she, in turn, ends with an excellent question, that begs another response from moi). In the meantime, here's the "brief" note I sent last night. Again, this is a follow-up to my post, and her comment, on checks and balances.

Hi, Amy.

This is just a quick note regarding the points you brought up in your comment on my blog.

In my e-mail late last night, I tongue-in-cheekly mentioned my intention to persuade you (regarding preferences for the Oval Office), but the fact of the matter is, it doesn't matter. Both candidates are reprehensible. Both are intent upon dismantling various sections of the Bill of Rights -- they only differ as to which sections they want to dismantle first. Both have stated very clearly, both on their web sites and in public speeches, their intention to steer us further into a police state, going beyond the excesses of the Patriot Act, et al.

Like you, I am disgusted by McCain's choice of a running mate. Like you, I am appalled by his switcheroo in his stance on abortion. I disagree with some of the other things you said, and I did, in fact, type up a detailed explanation as to why, but it doesn't matter. I don't want to be in the business of defending McCain, because I don't like him as a choice for President. (I did, eight years ago. In fact, I did, up until he started kissing neo-conservative tuckus in February.)

I meant what I said about checks and balances, though, because let's face it: a Democrat-dominated Congress would never allow McCain (or, if it came to it, Palin) to steer our government any further to the right with regard to domestic policy. Such a Congress might also end up working *against* the notion of becoming more of a police state. The same is not true with Obama as President. If he actually follows through with his promise to create a national police force that is as well funded, trained, and equipped as our military, I don't think we can count on the Democratic congress to stand against him -- just as we couldn't count on the Republican congress early in Bush's administration to stand against Bush, despite the fact that almost everything he has done as been as un-Republican as you can get.

Ergh. Every time I get on this subject, I get riled up, and I don't want to get riled up. McCain may be as bad as you appear to feel, but I think it's for different reasons. I do think that his foreign policy would be better than Obama's, but there's no way to tell, since Obama is a cypher in that regard.

When you get right down to it, all Presidents-to-be are cyphers. None of them end up performing quite as we expect. When was the last time a President lived up to (or down to) our expectations of him? Nixon?

McCain was a good man, up until a year ago, so I confess to being a little defensive about him, even though he has clearly lost his way. That said, Obama has the charisma and cult of personality that I find simultaneously fascinating and disturbing. I don't trust cult of personality. I was a history major; how could I? His speeches are vacuous. Read them in their text form some time. (I wrote about this in more detail in an earlier blog post.)

So, this is why I've "saved in draft form" a couple of e-mails to you and a couple of posts to my web site (and taken down to previous posts): I don't want to be the cranky old man who sounds all paranoid and bitter, and I don't want to alienate my good friends, many of whom are nonetheless getting wound up, themselves, about this election.

Most of my friends seem to be taking as obvious the flaws of one candidate and the virtues of the other -- and I mean, they take these as *way* obvious -- to the point where they can't acknowledge that their candidate of choice has just as serious flaws and the opponent has just as substantial virtues.

And yes, I must concede that both Obama and McCain have tremendous virtues, just as I worry over their tremendous flaws. Which one will be or would be the better choice? When all is said and done, we'll only be able to speculate, because only one *will* be president.

I hope that before too long, we'll have a chance to chat over these and other fun topics. But, as you and I agree, the stakes are high, and as we near the finish line of this stage of this particular race (please, oh please, don't let lawsuits drag this out for months like they did in 2000), tensions are a little high.

I share your pessimism about McCain. I suspect you don't share my pessimism about Obama. My blog entry was kinda tongue-in-cheek, but kinda not. I have concerns. As you pointed out, our current administration (and, I would argue, the last sixteen years) have done an amazing amount of damage to the American system of government. The next president could continue that pathetic tradition. Or not.

On a lighter note, the day after the results of the election are known, I'm thinking that our company will start offering "Don't blame me! I voted for (the losing candidate)!" bumper stickers. I think there will be good money to be made there.

Vote early and vote often!

--Allan

Posted by on November 04, 2008 12:36 PM in the following Department(s): Tidbits III

 Comments

Allan (and Amy),

I'm certain you both know this quote: "There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for… but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong." (Robert Heinlein).

I'm voting for McCain today mostly because I'm voting against Barack Obama, and also because I cannot vote against Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, etc. (Although I am voting against the incumbent Democrat who represents me in the House of Representatives.)

In my opinion, the most significant domestic policy issue in the long term is the looming insolvency of Social Security and Medicare. Obama opposes almost all of the measures that could prevent this disaster -- he won't lower benefits, he won't raise the retirement age, and he won't move toward privatization. The only solution he presents (in his "Blueprint for Change") is to lift the cap on earnings which are subject to the payroll tax, currently at $97,500. According to his website, Obama "will ask those making over $250,000 to contribute a bit more to Social Security to keep it sound... would ask those making over $250,000 to pay in the range of 2 to 4 percent more in total..."

Really? The programs are $50+ trillion in debt, and you're going to make up for that with an extra 2-4% from those making over $250K?

He's also proposed something on the order of $4 trillion in new spending, which will primarily be financed by increasing the marginal tax rate of those who make over $250K from 36% to 39.5%.

I, too, was a McCain supporter in 2000. He's the only politician whose speeches have, in fact, moved me to tears. (Both his final concession in 2000 and the ending of his otherwise lacking convention speech this year did so.) But I have serious disagreements with the senior Senator from Arizona over things like his signature piece, campaign finance reform. Making him President does not take the country to where I would like it to go.

Yet, given what we know about Barack Obama's plans for the country and the improbability of his vetoing anything that the Democrats pass in their strengthened hold on Congress (Barney Frank's 25% cuts to defense, for example), it's easy for me to pull the lever for McCain.

Allen

Posted by: Allen on November 4, 2008 1:32 PM

It's extremely difficult to take an argument seriously from someone who claims that Social Security and Medicare are "$50+ trillion in debt." That is a horrifically inaccurate number, too large by a couple of degrees of magnitude. When a rag like USA Today explains the shortfall by claiming it's "$53 trillion," they're not saying those programs are currently in debt by $53 trillion. They're talking about the amount you'd have to put away in principal as an endowment (never to be touched itself), earning interest, in order to use the INTEREST to repay old debts AND pay future obligations of EVERY government social program (including government pensions).

It's the equivalent of saying, "You personally owe $50,000 on old debts, and you will also owe $10,000 on your mortgage every year in the future - so you need to put $800,000 in the bank in order to accrue $40,000 interest every year, add $20,000 back to principal to increase it as a hedge against inflation, use $10,000 to pay down your old debt in stages, and $10,000 to pay your mortgage for the year." That doesn't make you "$800,000 in debt."

Obviously, vote for whom you want for whatever reasons you want, but it's always nice to get your facts right before you use them to make those decisions.

Posted by: Beeeej on November 11, 2008 6:41 AM

Beeeej:

I'll make you a deal -- I admit where I got my numbers wrong, if you'll admit where you got your analogy wrong.

According to the Wikipedia, the $53 trillion -- actually, $52.7 trillion, 2007 -- consists of:

- a $10.8 trillion chunk, most of which is the result of "official" budget deficits over lo these many years, plus military and civilian pensions and retiree health

- a $1.1 trillion chunk, which is stuff like the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, and undelivered orders (I think this is military equipment, etc.)

- $6.8 trillion in commitments to Social Security over and above the amounts expected to be received in payroll taxes, and

- a whopping $34 trillion in commitments to Medicare programs, over and above the amounts expected to be received in payroll taxes.

The $52.7 trillion figure is a current dollar value figure, and it's what you'd have to put aside in 2008 to pay all these commitments by spending both the interest and the principal. Here's where your analogy fails. You assert that the $53 trillion is what you'd have to put aside to pay these obligations without touching the principal -- in fact, your $800K example assumes that you put money aside "as a hedge against inflation," which I take to mean to maintain the principal's purchasing power after inflation. In this, you are incorrect. You'd have to spend all $52.7 trillion, plus any interest accrued over the next 75 years, in order to meet the obligation.

Now, 75 years sounds like a long time. But this is adding something like $702.7 billion -- more than the official deficit has ever been in any single year -- each and every year until 2082!

If you have data from some other source (the Wikipedia's source traces back to the Government Accounting Office's GAO Financial Condition and Fiscal Future Briefing, January 2008, I'd be very happy to take a look.

Posted by: Allen on November 12, 2008 8:58 PM

Oops. Two small corrections:

1) Although I outlined the data, I didn't explicitly note where I got my numbers wrong. Social Security and Medicare are not, by themselves, $53 trillion in debt. The unfunded obligations to those programs is only $40.8 trillion.

2) I tried to use a link, and Allan's comments don't support them. The Wikipedia page I got my data from is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt#Unfunded_obligations.

-AM

Posted by: Allen on November 12, 2008 9:10 PM

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Copyright (c)1998 - 2010 by Allan Rousselle. All rights reserved, all wrongs reversed, all reservations righted, all right, already.
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On Nov 12, Allen said:
"Oops. Two small corrections: 1) Although ..." on entry: Into the Breech, Part I: Both Candidates Are Flawed.

On Nov 12, Allen said:
"Beeeej: I'll make you a deal -- I admit wh..." on entry: Into the Breech, Part I: Both Candidates Are Flawed.

On Nov 11, Beeeej said:
"It's extremely difficult to take an argument ..." on entry: Into the Breech, Part I: Both Candidates Are Flawed.

On Nov 4, Allen said:
"Allan (and Amy), I'm certain you both know..." on entry: Into the Breech, Part I: Both Candidates Are Flawed.

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